Courtesy of The AMPAS

I know what you’re thinking. How is it almost the middle of March and the Oscars still aren’t done yet? If it feels like awards season has lasted an eternity, that’s because it has. What begins as a sprint at the Cannes Film Festival in May turns into a grueling nine-month marathon that doesn’t let up until Oscar Sunday, when the industry finally anoints its champion.

Lucky for us, 2025 delivered. It was a banner year for bold, diverse, and genuinely original work — films that made noise both commercially and critically, and, more importantly, lingered in conversation long after opening weekend.

It’s fitting, then, that Warner Bros. — a studio that’s spent the last few months dominating headlines while Netflix and Paramount locked into an expensive bidding war that ultimately saw David Ellison’s Skydance-backed Paramount emerge victorious — is all but guaranteed to take home Best Picture on Sunday. After a chaotic corporate saga, the studio is poised for a golden bookend.

Weeks ago, if you’d asked me where I was leaning, the answer was obvious. Thanks to a clean sweep of precursor awards and an undeniable aura of inevitability, Paul Thomas Anderson’s searing, slow-burn pressure cooker “One Battle After Another” felt unstoppable. But the Oscars’ late-season calendar allows narratives to shift — and if you’ve been paying attention, you can feel the tide turning.

To call “Sinners,” which landed a record-smashing 16 nominations, an underdog now feels absurd. But for much of the season, it seemed overmatched by the prestige pedigree of Paul Thomas Anderson and the stately gravitas of “One Battle.” The Academy also has a historically spotty relationship with genre fare — with “The Silence of the Lambs” often cited as the rare exception that broke through.

All of which is to say: we officially have a race.

For Warner Bros., it’s a win-win scenario. One of their heavy hitters is walking away with the gold. The only question is which one.

Meanwhile — will Timothée Chalamet’s recent off-the-cuff comments boomerang back on him? Has his momentum stalled? And what about Supporting Actor, a category that feels like a three-way dead heat with no clear frontrunner? Best Actress is the only top-tier race that appears truly locked.

Here are my predictions for all 25 categories.

BEST PICTURE: SINNERS

At this point, you might as well flip a coin. This is giving “Birdman” vs “Boyhood.” It’s giving “Parasite” vs “1917.” It’s giving “Roma” vs “Green Book.” A genuine two-horse race where either name being read wouldn’t shock anyone in the room. Momentum is everything, and coming off major SAG wins, I’m predicting “Sinners” pulls it out when the envelope is opened. But do not — under any circumstances — count out “One Battle.” It has been a juggernaut all season. Want an early tell? Watch Supporting Actor and Film Editing. If either of those goes to “Sinners,” that’s your first signal that the night may tilt its way.

Still, “One Battle” is not going quietly.

BEST DIRECTOR: PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON — ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

This feels like one of the safest bets of the night. From “Boogie Nights” to “Magnolia,” from “There Will Be Blood” to “Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson has built one of the most formidable filmographies of his generation. This feels like the Academy recognizes not just this film, but the body of work. Yes, Ryan Coogler is right there with “Sinners,” and yes, he absolutely deserves to be in the conversation. But this feels like an “it’s his time” Oscar.

Consolation prize? Coogler likely walks away with Original Screenplay.

BEST ACTOR: MICHAEL B. JORDAN — SINNERS

Despite the discourse around Timothée Chalamet’s recent ballet and opera comments, I don’t buy that they meaningfully shifted the race. Voting was essentially locked by the time that clip went viral. The more telling indicator is that Chalamet hasn’t picked up serious hardware since the Golden Globes in January. Meanwhile, Michael B. Jordan — who, let’s not forget, plays two roles in “Sinners” — had been curiously overlooked all season… until SAG. And SAG matters. Actors make up the largest branch of the Academy. Yes, Chalamet won SAG last year for “A Complete Unknown” before losing the Oscar to Adrien Brody in “The Brutalist.” Could history repeat itself in reverse? Sure. But Jordan gives the more dynamic, technically demanding performance, and “Sinners” feels like it has broader passion behind it.

Edge: Jordan. But this one’s tight.

BEST ACTRESS: JESSIE BUCKLEY — HAMNET

This is as close to a lock as we get. From the moment “Hamnet” premiered at Telluride, Jessie Buckley has owned this category. No challenger has seriously threatened her dominance. The performance is devastating, controlled, and undeniable. If she loses, it will be the shock of the night.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: SEAN PENN — ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

If someone tells you they’re certain about this category, they’re lying. Sean Penn hasn’t exactly been campaigning aggressively, but his feral, unhinged turn in “One Battle” is the kind of performance that sticks in voters’ memories. A third Oscar would put him in rarefied company. But Delroy Lindo, quietly magnificent in “Sinners,” is right there. And Stellan Skarsgård in “Sentimental Value” is no slouch either. The safe money says Penn. The smart money watches this one closely.

And if Lindo’s name gets called? That’s a very good sign for “Sinners.”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: AMY MADIGAN — WEAPONS

“Weapons” was a commercial and critical smash, and Amy Madigan’s sinister Aunt Gladys — strategically hidden from much of the film’s marketing — became its secret weapon. This is the kind of veteran-respect win that echoes Jamie Lee Curtis’ triumph for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” It’s also the film’s lone nomination, which can sometimes consolidate support. Still, don’t ignore Wunmi Mosaku for “Sinners.” If there’s a surprise here, it’s her.

Remaining Predictions

Best Adapted Screenplay: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Best Original Screenplay: SINNERS

Best Casting: SINNERS

Best Cinematography: SINNERS

Best Costume Design: FRANKENSTEIN

Best Film Editing: SINNERS

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: FRANKENSTEIN

Best Production Design: FRANKENSTEIN

Best Score: SINNERS

Best Song: “Golden” from KPOP DEMON HUNTERS

Best Sound: F1

Best Visual Effects: AVATAR: FIRE & ASH

Best Animated Feature: KPOP DEMON HUNTERS

Best Documentary Feature: THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR

Best International Film: SENTIMENTAL VALUE

Best Animated Short: THE GIRL WHO CRIED PEARLS

Best Documentary Short: ARMED WITH ONLY A CAMERA

Best Live Action Short: TWO PEOPLE EXCHANGING SALIVA

The Oscars, hosted by Conan O’Brien, air live Sunday, March 15th at 7PM EST on ABC and streaming on Hulu.